Skip to main content
SearchLoginLogin or Signup

An Optimist’s View on the Future of Wine

Published onJan 30, 2025
An Optimist’s View on the Future of Wine
·

Abstract

This article, updated from its original appearance in HDSR’s Vine to Mind symposium brochure, recounts personal experiences establishing companies in the wine industry, detailing challenges such as cultural and financial obstacles, as well as the resilience and adaptability required in the dynamic wine industry. The narrative explores significant industry changes over almost three decades, including technological advancements and geopolitical influences. The author emphasizes the importance of social impact and the potential for technology to enhance sustainability and consumer engagement. The article also discusses the Vine to Mind symposium, which aimed to unite traditional winemaking with data science to address pressing challenges. Despite industry hurdles, such as health advisories and climate change, the author remains optimistic about the future of wine, emphasizing the communal and sensory value of wine experiences.

Keywords: wine industry, business, consumer engagement, generational shifts, Vine to Mind


On April 16, 1996, in Beijing, a significant journey began for my late father and me as we ventured into the wine importing and distribution scene in China. This marked the birth of ASC Fine Wines (ASC, Asia Solutions Corporation), which would grow to become China’s largest wine import and distribution company. Our story is one of resilience, perseverance, and relentless optimism amid an enormously uncertain business environment and an industry replete with challenges.

From the outset, we faced numerous obstacles. Our initial imported stock from the United States and France was hijacked, our Beijing warehouse was destroyed by fire, our customers had little or no understanding of the product we were selling (or attempting to sell) them, and financial challenges loomed large, especially on the cash flow front, where we ran out after less than 2 years in business. Yet, with each hurdle, we discovered innovative solutions, emerging stronger and more knowledgeable. These experiences taught us the importance of adaptability and foresight in the ever-evolving wine industry and the extraordinarily complex operating environment of mainland China.

By 2010, having established ASC as a market leader, I decided to sell the majority of the business to the Japanese food and beverage group Suntory. This decision marked a new chapter, leading me to San Francisco in 2015 where I immersed myself in technology and the world of wine via an investment in Vinfolio, a fine and rare wine marketplace and storage business. In 2022 I merged this business with Fine + Rare, a U.K.-based company whose strategy is to build the leading international marketplace for the world’s most prestigious cellars, distinguished collections, and renowned producers.

Over 28 years, I have witnessed transformative changes within the wine industry. Generational shifts in legendary wine-producing families like the Rothschilds of Château Lafite in Bordeaux (seventh generation at the helm), or the Gaja family from Piedmont, Italy (fifth generation), and the Trimbach family from Alsace, France, who are in their 12th and 13th generations to manage the business. I have seen how large market fluctuations driven by pandemics (COVID-19 in 2020 and to a lesser extent SARS-CoV-1 in 2003), geopolitical and economic factors (the global financial crisis in 2009 and more recently the war in Ukraine and global inflation), and evolving consumer preferences have all shaped the landscape. Notably, shifts in demand influenced by cultural phenomena, like the ‘Sideways effect’ on pinot noir and merlot, underscore the wine industry’s susceptibility to broader societal trends. Another example is China’s imposition of more than 200% percent tariffs on Australian wine in 2020, destroying that country’s most important export market, or in the same year, the Trump administration’s imposition of 25% tariffs on French, German, and Spanish wines in retaliation for European government subsidies to the aircraft industry. Both instances speak to the wine industry's susceptibility to the politics of trade.

Today, the wine industry faces what many believe are unparalleled challenges, including climate change, health advisories against alcohol, overproduction, and a disconnect with younger demographics. Yet, my optimism for the industry’s future remains undiminished. This optimism is grounded in the shared experience of wine, the promise of technological advancements, and the enduring legacy of multigenerational family businesses. These elements, combined with innovative approaches by these families and the many larger publicly traded companies involved in wine production such as LVMH, Kering, Constellation, and Treasury Wine Estates, hold the key to navigating current challenges.

The communal experience of enjoying wine, with its ability to transcend the ordinary and forge connections, remains unparalleled. Wine has the unique power to slow down time, allowing for deeper engagement and lasting memories. It is this aspect that, I believe, will continue to endear wine to people across generations. As Patrick Schmitt MW [Master of Wine], editor-in-chief of the drinks business, said in his February 21, 2024, article titled “We Don’t Drink Wine Just for Intoxication”:

Wine in small doses does good for the spirit – it relieves stress and promotes conversation – but it also provides a sensory pleasure due to its smell and taste. I have tried no other drink with wine’s extraordinarily rich mix of characters, nor ability to improve the pleasure of eating, not just by complementing the flavors, but by augmenting them.

Furthermore, the narrative and craftsmanship inherent in wine production, exemplified by families who have tended their vineyards for generations, will only grow in significance. As the world gravitates toward automation and efficiency, the authenticity of and stories behind each bottle of wine will become more valuable. This authentic connection, forged through centuries of tradition, positions wine uniquely in the marketplace. As referenced above, families like the Rothschilds, Gajas, and Trimbachs all represent an excellence in both the craft of being an artisan and building a globally recognized brand, but there are so many more. The Antinori family from Tuscany, Italy, has been making wine since 1385, an astounding 6 centuries and 26 generations. The Henschke family from Eden Valley in Australia started making wine in 1860 and are managed by their sixth generation, and in Argentina, the Catena family has been making wine since 1902, with Laura Catena, its fourth generation, now leading the business. What other industry has such history and stories to tell? And with new technology, exemplified by digital platforms like YouTube, Douyin (TikTok), and Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), these stories can be told to a huge new range of customers, who I believe will become increasingly interested in what is authentic and real, not to mention something that tastes so good.

On the technological front, we are on the cusp of breakthroughs that promise to revolutionize wine production and consumption. From precision agriculture to innovative marketing platforms, technology offers new pathways to sustainability and consumer engagement. These advancements will enable producers to adapt to climate change, explore new varietals suited to shifting conditions, and connect with consumers in meaningful ways. The wine industry is highly fragmented, made up of thousands of producers, big and small, around the world. Wine producers have often struggled to tell their stories in a scalable and efficient way, but by embracing new media platforms and using consumer data more efficiently, it can better leverage the things that make it so unique: authenticity, history, sustainability, and value. This is what consumers want, and there has never been a time when the wine industry has had a better opportunity, using new technology, to connect and tell its story than today.

It is with technology and data in mind that I worked with Harvard Data Science Review (HDSR), in celebration for their 5th anniversary, to bring the world of wine and data together for a conference on June 14, 2024, called “Vine to Mind: Decanting Wine’s Future With Data Science and AI.” Our mission is twofold: to shed light on the marriage between timeless winemaking traditions and the dynamism of contemporary data science and AI technologies, and to distill the future of viticulture with data-driven insight, innovation, and collaboration. It is our hope that this initiative will develop into an important annual event and one that leads to practical and effective solutions to some important challenges and opportunities facing the wine industry.

As we navigate these challenges ahead, it is clear that the wine industry must embrace change. By leveraging technological innovations, prioritizing sustainability, and nurturing the communal spirit of wine, the industry can ensure its relevance and vibrancy for future generations. The collective efforts of industry stalwarts, coupled with the passion of wine enthusiasts, including technologists and scientists, will enable us to overcome current obstacles and usher in a new era of growth and innovation. Much as the generations of families in wine have managed the challenges before them, and my father and I managed the challenges of helping to build a new culture of wine consumption in China, the path forward requires action, adaptation, and an unwavering belief in the enduring appeal of wine. I am optimistic that the industry and the people who make and support it, from the vineyards to the drinkers, are up to the challenge.

Reflections Postsymposium

The recent “Vine to Mind: Decanting Wine’s Future With Data Science and AI” symposium, which I had the privilege of helping to organize, provided a wealth of new insights and reinforced many of the ideas I have long held about the future of the wine industry.

One of the most promising developments from the symposium was the expressed interest from data scientists to work within the wine industry. Many attendees from the data science community were captivated by the richness of data in the wine industry and the potential to make a meaningful impact. This enthusiasm is a positive sign for the industry, which needs to attract high-quality data professionals to manage both its opportunities and challenges moving forward.

Another significant takeaway from the symposium was the clear need for stronger collaboration between the research community in academia and the wine and spirits industry. The discussions highlighted the mutual benefits that can be gained from a deeper understanding of each other’s work. This should become one of the primary goals of the “Vine to Mind” symposium in the future—to bridge this gap and foster collaboration that drives innovation and addresses the industry’s challenges more effectively.

Additionally, an emerging challenge that came into sharper focus during and after the symposium is the increasing threat posed by those who seek to classify any amount of alcohol consumption as harmful to health. Organizations like the World Health Organization and various government agencies are moving toward this stance, often using data improperly to support their conclusions. This misuse of data not only threatens the wine industry but also undermines informed consumer choice. Addressing this challenge will require a concerted effort from the industry, particularly in advocating for the accurate use of data and defending the cultural and health benefits that moderate wine consumption can offer.


Disclosure Statement

The author of this article has been employed in positions related to the subject matter discussed herein. The opinions and conclusions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of any past or present employers or companies. The author has not received any financial support or funding from organizations, institutions, or individuals for the research, authorship, or publication of this article.


©2025 Donald St. Pierre. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) International license, except where otherwise indicated with respect to particular material included in the article.

Comments
0
comment
No comments here
Why not start the discussion?